CAL/NEC 4 Preview: Battle Royale

Next Friday (Oct 26) MIAA member schools will vote on a post season playoff proposal that will fundamentally change high school football in Massachusetts. Teams will play their first seven games to determine who makes the playoffs, and the teams that don't, get thrown into a pool to finish out the year with three or four meaningless contests.

That's next year if it passes. This year, we have the direct opposite.

Teams play five or six non league games to tune up and define their identity, then play their final five games for all the marbles in their respective leagues. Under the proposed new system, more teams, including non league champions, will participate in the post season. Not the case this year, when only one team, the league champion, advances to the playoffs. All other teams in the league get a thanks-for-playing pat on the shoulder pads and wait for next near.

It's that playing-without-a-net scenario that makes the upcoming CAL/NEC 4 League Season (in effect the playoffs) so exciting.

And if this is the last year under the present system, the league will go out in a blaze of glory with one of the most anticipated and highly contested races in recent years.

The league has no weak sisters. Anyone who has followed the teams in the CAL/NEC 4 over the years can not look at the schedule and say "okay that game is an easy win." There will be no easy wins and the league champion will likely not be crowned until the turkey is in the oven on Thanksgiving Day.

The fact that the league is so evenly matched - and yes there are obviously some teams stronger than others - is a double edged sword. The good news is that with any team capable of knocking off another, I don't see any team running the table undefeated which has been the case the past three years. Hamilton-Wenham was 5-0 last year and 6-0 in 2010 in the old CAL Small. The Pioneers zoomed through a 6-0 effort in 2009.

Last season, the Generals run was expected and you knew they wouldn't lose more than a game at most (something that nearly happened in Lynnfield in their last minute overtime win). Teams knew if they lost one game they were virtually out of the race, hoping for tiebreakers.

This year, a loss is still a problem, but it may not be fatal, since every week every team in the league could get knocked off.

I asked Pioneer head coach Neal Weidman if he thought any team could "run the table."

"I don't know," he answered. "There might be a team or two that might be slightly above one team in particular. It's pretty balanced. No gimmes. The good thing is that it keeps you focused every week.

"Ipswich is tough as nails, Hamilton Wenham and North Reading present problems. Georgetown is scoring points and Manchester Essex is good," Weidman summed up. "Everybody's pretty good."

With such a tight race, there will be increased emphasis on tiebreakers since it is likely that one or more teams could finish with one loss. The tiebreaker that has been used in the past is 1) head to head among tied teams and then 2) points allowed in games among tied teams.

That means that even if a team loses, it behooves them to make sure they minimize the victor's scoring. A late score in a lost game could come back to haunt when the sorting is done at the end of the year.

So speaking of sorting, let's take a quick look at the six CAL/NEC 4 teams and what we know about them after their non league schedule.

The Incumbent

Hamilton Wenham (3-2). The Generals are the two time defending champion, so all discussions have to begin with them. They still have last year's Player of the Year in quarterback Trevor Lyons. We all know how dangerous a runner he is and how improved he was as a passer last year. He has continued that arc this year and is currently tied for fourth place in Division 3A with six TD passes. He has run for five scores.

The Generals lost most of their gargantuan lines from last year but they have picked up a couple of new weapons. Big receiver Jimmy Campbell, a basketball player playing football for the first time, is tied for third in the division with three TD passes. Freshman running back Cam Macri has run for a couple of scores including the game winner against Bishop Fenwick last week. The offense is scoring 19.8 ppg, but the defense is allowing 20 ppg. Expect the defense to get stronger as the Generals move into league play. And they are the champs until someone knocks them off.

The Front Runner

North Reading (4-1). I said after last Thanksgiving's Day game that the Hornets would be the favorite this year and I haven't seen anything to change that opinion. In Carl Lipani, they may have the best running back on the north shore, and he is in the perfect offense with Ed Melanson's single wing. Lipani has tallied nine touchdowns already and the NR offense, which returned the entire backfield and most of the line, appears to be in high gear. Teams that key on Lipani risk getting burned by sidekick C. J. McCarthy who is a dangerous weapon as well.

But as good as the Hornet offense is, head coach Jeff Wall's defense just might be better. Lipani is a big piece of that as well. The NR defense is allowing only 10 points per game, best in the league. And where many teams have been crushed by injuries, the Hornets are getting stronger and will be bolstered by the return of probably their best defensive player in linebacker Mike Moscaritolo. Circle Friday, November 2 on your calendar. The Generals travel to North Reading that night in what should be a monumental battle.

The Unknowns

Lynnfield (3-2). The Pioneers are an enigma. They have dominated in wins over Danvers and Pentucket and played just well enough to lose a one point game against Newburyport. They were flat in a one TD loss to Bishop Fenwick and needed a phenomenal comeback to edge Amesbury. The offense is off from the high scoring units of the past few years and come into league play averaging 15.8 points per game, off of the 20 ppg last year and 30 ppg in 2010. However the defense has been much better, allowing only 10.8 ppg. Their 25 overall point differential is second in the league only to NR's 41 point bulge.

Which team is this? That is the key. If they are the team with the smothering defense that has won two straight, then they could challenge H-W and North Reading. If they are the team that has shown an unfortunate penchant for turning the ball over or committing penalties at key times, than they may have to play the role of spoiler.

Ipswich (1-5). The Tigers are always tough and their head coach Ted Flaherty is not shy about stating how he feels about the upcoming league race.

“We expect to win the division,” Flaherty told Joshua Boyd of the Ipswich Chronicle this week, channelling his inner Rex Ryan. “I feel really good about it. We get everybody back. We’ve got some depth now, as people have been forced into playing the last few weeks."

The Tigers have also had a split personality this year, partially due to their struggle with injuries. They were dominated by Pinegree and Amesbury, but fought hard in tough losses to Newburyport and Pentucket. Their one win was against Triton. They have 15 seniors and as usual are tough both physically and mentally. If they could start the league season by knocking off the Pioneers, that would give them the shot of confidence that could propel them into the league race. In any event, they will be a tough out every week.

The Infirmed

Georgetown (1-5). The Royals shot out of the gate scoring points in bunches under second year coach Paul Sobolewski, who as expected looks to have turned the program around. They drubbed West Bridgewater in the opener 41-14 but have since lost five straight. Not a huge roster to begin with, the Royals have been crushed by injuries. In particular the loss of quarterback Niko Edwards, the early season sensation, was a huge blow. He tossed 7 touchdown passes as Georgetown rattled off 101 points in their first three games before he went down.

They played last week without Edwards, top rusher Tim Dillon and leading receiver Colby Ingraham. Much larger programs couldn't survive that onslaught, but it is even more devastating to a smaller squad like the Royals. The key will be health. If they can get back their key players, they could make some noise and have an affect on the league race.

The Surprise

Manchester-Essex (1-5). Big things were expected from the Hornets this year as they returned veteran skill position players and a huge line. But they started out slowly, getting hammered by Amesbury then losing to Saugus and Cathedral before beating Pope John by a point for their only win. Their one win start has been surprising, especially to anyone who watched them upend the Pioneers 7-6 late last year. However, the pieces that were in place that gave everyone such high expectations are still in place. If they can put it together, they can make the dismal nonleague schedule a bad memory. Unfortunately, they face a brutal schedule, starting off league play with consecutive games against Hamilton Wenham this week and then North Reading next week. If they can survive that double shot, they may still be heard from in the race.

So where does that leave us?

We have six weeks of non league play to look at to guage things, so how do we rate the teams. Well as I have said, I gave up making predictions a long time ago and I won't be starting now. However, in an effort to get a handle on the race, I employed a number of methods to compare the teams. Each have their positives and negatives, but each gives some insight into the relative strengths of the six teams.

The Non League Record Method
1. North Reading 4-1
2. Hamilton Wenham 3-2
3. Lynnfield 3-2
4. Georgetown 1-5
5. Manchester-Essex 1-5
6. Ipswich 1-5
 -using average points scored as the tiebreaker

This is the simplest comparison. It is dangerous to project because of the disparity of opponents. It does have some relation to league play however. Here is a comparison of last season's non league records compared to the final league records.

2011 Non League Records
1. Hamilton-Wenham 5-0
2. North Reading 3-2
3. Man-Essex 3-3
4. Lynnfield 3-3
5. Ipswich 1-4
6. Georgetown 1-4

2011 League Standings
1. H-W 5-0
2. North Reading 4-1
3. Man-Essex 2-3
4. Lynnfield 2-3
5. Ipswich 2-3
6. Georgetown 0-5

Common Opponent Method or The Amesbury Factor
1. North Reading +14
2. Lynnfield +4
3. Hamilton-Wenham -13
4. Ipswich -21
4. Manchester-Essex -21
6. Georgetown -31

The only team to play all six schools in the non league portion of the schedule was Amesbury. So the simple math is to take the differential in scores against the Indians and rate them high to low. The only two teams to beat Amesbury were North Reading who dominated in a 21-7 game that could have been worse and Lynnfield who scrambled from behind for a 31-27 win. All other four teams lost to the Indians.

The Modified Old Super Bowl Formula Method
1. North Reading 8.6
2. Lynnfield 6.8
3. Hamilton-Wenham 5.8
4. Ipswich 1.0
5. Man-Essex 1.0
6. Georgetown 0.8

For those not old enough to remember this formula, let me refresh. In the old days starting in 1972, only the top two teams in each division advanced to the Super Bowls. To determine the ratings, teams earned points for their own wins and for wins by teams they defeated. You earned more points for beating teams in a higher division and less for wins against teams in a lower division.

I'm not sure if I have the numbers right but this is close enough.

Own wins:
1 point for win against team three divisions lower
2 points for win against team two divisions lower
3 points for win against team one division lower
4 points for win against team in own division
5 points for win against team one division higher
6 points for win against team two divisions higher
7 points for win against team three divisions higher

Teams also get two points for every win by a team they have beaten.

You then total up all the points and divide by the number of games played to come up with the rating number.

North Reading obviously topped the chart since they had one more win than H-W and Lynnfield even though they only got three points for their win against Austin Prep. They also picked up more points because of the success of the four teams they beat. Those teams won a total of 14 games giving the Hornets 28 opponent points most of anyone in the league.

The Pioneers edged Hamilton Wenham in own points 14-11 even though they both had three wins because Lynnfield got 6 points for beating Division 2A Danvers while the Generals only got 3 points for defeating Division 4 Bishop Fenwick. The Pioneers also had more opponent points because Danvers has four wins and Pentucket and Amesbury have three each while Generals' defeated opponents Triton only has one win. Fenwick has five wins giving H-W 10 points.

The tie among the three teams with only 1 win came down to Georgetown's win over Division 5 West Bridgewater which only earned them 1 point. M-E only got 2 points for beating Division 4A Pope John and Ipswich got 4 points for beating Triton, who is in the same division.

See how much fun this is?

Reporters would need a calculator (that's all we had in those days) to try to figure out who was ahead while screaming "they promised me there'd be no math!"

So suffice to say, there is only one real way to sort this all out. That is to play the games. Thankfully we  begin that tomorrow.

The Voice Reaches Out
With the expected tight race, Tom Waisnor, the Voice of the Pioneers, wants to keep everyone in the stands informed of the progress of other CAL/NEC 4 games. He is trying to put together a network where the scores of games can be shared between all the PA announcers. If you are reading from another town and want to participate, please contact Tom at twaisnor@hotmail.com

That's it for now. Check back tomorrow after the game.