Monday, October 21, 2013

Around the CAL Baker: Week 7


by Tom Condardo

Wait...what?

CAL Baker?

Well you learn something new every day, and today I learned that the Pioneers are not in the CAL Small. Or the CAL 2. They're in the CAL Baker.

That's right, congrats to the Pioneers, the first ever CAL Baker champions!

Evidently at the beginning of the year, the CAL athletic directors voted to rename the league's divisions. The CAL Large or CAL 1 was renamed the CAL Kinney, in honor of Sherm Kinney, the longtime Hamilton Wenham AD who is now with the MIAA. Lynnfield's division, the CAL Small or CAL 2, was renamed the CAL Baker in honor of Dick Baker after the former Rockport and Swampscott AD and former CAL secretary/treasurer who is also now with the MIAA.

So that clears that up. So what happened in the Baker Division this week? Well as you know, the Pioneers whipped up another title with the help of three H-W turnovers, while Amesbury kept their playoff hopes cooking with their win over Georgetown. I'll review all the ingredients of this week's games and then I'll try to help sort out the Division Four North playoff scenarios.

But first a look at the updated standings, or as I like to call them, the Baker's Half Dozen.



The Pioneers may have locked down the title, but second place and an automatic playoff berth is still very much up in the air thanks to the surge of the Amesbury Indians. After absorbing three consecutive losses by a 123-21 score to start the year, Thom Connors' Indian have reeled off three straight wins. Last week they blanked Georgetown 35-0 to take over undisputed possession of second place with a 3-1 mark. A win over Manchester Essex this week sews up second place and a spot in the playoffs.

The Indians started fast - as in the opening kickoff-fast. Ben Cullen returned it 85 yards to give Amesbury a quick 7-0 lead. They tacked on three more scores in the second to make it 28-0 at the half. Quarterback Mac Short ran for 110 yards and two touchdowns. Cullen rushed for 49 yards and added two other TD's.

Georgetown travels to Wenham to take on what should be an angry Generals' squad which still has an outside shot at second place and a playoff berth.

Amesbury can make that moot with a victory over the Hornets in Manchester on Friday night. Win and they're in.

The Hornets kept their Division Five playoff hopes alive with an exciting 26-20 overtime win last Friday night at home against Ipswich. M/E trailed 14-6 in the fourth quarter but scored when a scrambling Craig Carter found Liam Logue for a 19 yard TD on a fourth down play with less than four minutes left in the game. Chris Dumont plowed in for the two to tie the score and send it into overtime.

Carter hit Dumont for a score in the first overtime but the Tigers tied it 20-20 on a one yard run by Curtis Levasseur. In the second overtime, Ipswich missed a field goal but on M/E's possession, Carter snuck in from the one on fourth down for the win.

The Tigers, who are starting to get comfortable running the spread offense, took a 14-6 halftime lead on a Kyle Blomster to Nate Glaster touchdown pass with seconds left in the second quarter.

Ipswich finishes its regular season by hosting the Pioneers on Friday night. The Hornets welcome Amesbury.

Playoff Update

The committee that designed the new playoff format has to be thrilled with the results. Going into the final week of the new regular season, very little has been decided and hopes for many teams are still alive. That was the intent and it has come to fruition.

First a look at the updated Power Rankings.



I spent a lot more time than I probably should have on this and still haven't come up with all the permutations. First notice that I've changed the rankings a bit. I had thought that the seedings would be first place finishers first, followed by second place finishers, and then wildcard teams. But in rereading the Playoff Manifesto, I don't believe that is the way it will work.

First and second place finishers will get automatic bids, and the wild cards teams will be selected based on the power rankings to fill out the eight team field. However, once the eight teams are determined, I believe they will be seeded according to their power rankings, regardless of league finish. What that means is that even though the Pioneers are a league champion, and Pentucket is the only other team that will also be a title holder, Lynnfield will not be guaranteed the second seed. They will still have to finish with the second best power ranking.

Second place is the highest the Pioneers can finish in the rankings. Thanks to Pentucket's strength of schedule and six wins, even if the Sachems lose to North Reading this week, they are still guaranteed six points. That will give them 103 total divided by six for a ranking of 17.1.

If the Pioneers can beat Ipswich, and everything falls perfectly with the teams they've beaten, the maximum points they can get is 114/7 = 16.3. So they can't catch the Sachems. If the Pioneers lose to Ipswich, they could actually fall out of the top four seeds depending on what Bedford, Watertown, and Triton do.

Yes Pat Sheehan's Vikings have a shot to overtake the Pioneers should they stumble in Ipswich. Triton takes on Masco this week, which is a huge opportunity for them. Should they knock off the Chieftains, they could pick up as many as 36 points - 12 for beating a team in a higher division, 12 for Masco's four wins, and 12 more if things play out perfectly for the teams the Vikes defeated. That could give them 105 points. Should the Pioneers lose to Ipswich, they would end up with 101 and fall behind Triton in the seedings.

So here is what we know for sure. Pentucket and Lynnfield are in. If Amesbury beats M/E, they nail down second place in the CAL Baker and will be in.

Here's what we don't know yet. If M/E beats the Indians, and H/W defeats Georgetown, that would set up a three way tie for second between Amesbury, M/E and H/W. Each has one win in that round robin so it will probably come down to the points against tiebreaker.

Watertown and Stoneham are locked in a four way tie for second place in the Middlesex League Freedom. Only one of them can possibly get the second place automatic seed and there is a chance that neither gets it. However, both will be strong wild card candidates.

A Bedford win over 2-4 Boston Latin (good for 12 points) coupled with a Wayland loss to 6-0 Concord Carlisle nails down second place in the Dual County Small for the Buccaneers and an automatic berth. Wayland owns the tiebreaker thanks to an 8-7 win over Bedford so if they both finish in a tie for second, the Bucs become a strong wild card candidate.

If Masco defeats Triton, the Chieftains lock up second place in the CAL Kinney and throws the Vikes and Newburyport into the wild card pool. If Triton wins, it locks them, Masco, and Newburyport into a second place tie. Again all teams would have a win in that round robin so points against would come in to play there.

Winthrop can pick up a boatload of points with an upset win over Division Three Danvers (5-1) which would vault them into the wild card conversation.

Weston appears to be alive as well even though their regular season is over. They can pick up enough opponent points to put them in the hunt.

As for the seedings? No clue. We'll just have to play the games and let the committee sort it out on Sunday when they pairings will be announced.

That's it for now. Check back Thursday for my Ipswich game preview.


No comments:

Post a Comment