Postseason Playoff Primer from a Pioneer Perspective

by Tom Condardo

So now that the focus is finally on football, everyone is beginning to take a look at the new playoff format. You've no doubt seen an explanation of how it will work in any number of newspapers. (Mine will be in the Villager on Wednesday). However, most of the explanations have been generic in nature. It's time someone (okay me) let you know how the proposal specifically affects the Pioneers. That time is right now.

The more I look at the plan, the better I like it for two main reasons.

1) The games all count beginning from week one.
2) Teams have more than one opportunity to make the post season.

The only real downside is the fact that the Thanksgiving Day game has absolutely no impact on league championships or post season play. By the time the turkeys are roasting, the playoffs will be over and only two teams in each division will remain standing for the six state Super Bowls to be played the first week in December. We'll have to rely on the emotion of long standing rivalries and the final game for seniors to spice up those holiday contests. You know what? That will be enough.

Yes last year was awesome where the game meant the the league championship and a trip to the playoffs.But let's be realistic. The last time the Lynnfield/North Reading Thanksgiving Day game was a winner take all affair before last season was 1978. Since then, the outcome of the game has had an impact on a league crown for either team only a handful of times. In 1979 and 1980 the Hornets needed to beat the Pioneers to take league titles (and they did). The Pioneers needed wins over the Hornets in 1983, 1985, and 1986 to capture their championships which they also did. In 1991 the Pioneers needed a win to keep their slim title hopes alive. They beat North Reading but the other games didn't fall their way and they came up short.

So in 36 years, the game was played for more than just pride exactly seven times, including last year. I think we can agree that not having a title on the line didn't take away from the other 29 games. As Triton head coach and former Pioneer Pat Sheehan was quoted as saying, the game is still the final one for seniors and will still be important.  

That said, there is now a road to an expanded playoffs and I spent some time analyzing how tough a path it will be for the Pioneers. Grab a drink or a snack and settle in. This could get lengthy. Let's get to it.

The Basics:

1. The Pioneers are in Division 4 North with 15 other teams. (We'll talk about them shortly)
2. Eight of those 16 teams will qualify for the post season
3. The results of the first seven games of the season determines the playoff teams
4. All league games must be included in those seven games
5. First and second place finishers in each league earn automatic playoff berths (Kind of. More on that later).
6. If more spots are available, the balance of the eight team field will be filled with wild card teams based on a power rating.
7. Non league games figure into the power ratings so those are no longer just "tuneups."
8. Teams that don't make the playoffs will be put in a pool from which their final three games will be scheduled against teams with similar records.
9. Teams that are eliminated from the playoffs in week one or two will go into the pool for their final game or ga  mes. 

The Power Ratings:

1. A team gets 12 points for beating a team in a higher division (none of the Pioneers' opponents fall into that category this year).
2. A team gets 10 points for beating a team in the same division (the Pioneers have five of those games).
3. A team gets 8 points for beating a team in a lower division (the Pioneers have two of these games. Manchester-Essex and Georgetown are in the CAL Small, but they are both in Division 5 North for post season purposes).
4. The above gives a team their "Own Value." For the Pioneers, their maximum "Own Value" for going 7-0 would be 66 points. (5 x 10) + (2 x 8) = 66.
5. A team earns 3 points for every win by an opponent that they have beaten. (1.5 points for a tie)
6. A team earns 1 point for every win by an opponent that has beaten them. (.5 points for a tie) 
7. A team earns 1 point for an open date for any opponent. (This is not a factor. All of the Pioneers' opponents are scheduled for seven games.)
8. The above will determine a team's "Opponent Value." (I could probably calculate the theoretical value of the Pioneers' "Opponent Value" but I won't)
9. "Own Value" + "Opponent Value" divided by the number of games played equals a team's Power Rating.

Okay got that? I know, they promised there would be no math. Sorry.

Now on to some specifics.

The Division:

The 16 teams that make up Division 4 North come from seven leagues. Since finishing first or second (maybe) in your league automatically gets you into the playoffs, the fact that seven leagues are involved is significant. 

I'll go through the Division 4 North teams in each league and note the maximum number of automatic berths, the minimum number of automatic berths and the most likely number for this year. I actually gave up predicting high school football a long time ago, but I will make some educated guesses based on recent past history. The caveat is that this IS high school football, and teams that may have struggled recently can turn it around in a hurry and vice versa so keep that in mind.

Cape Ann League Large (5 teams)

This league has the most representatives in the division with North Reading, Triton, Pentucket, Newburyport, and Saugus. The only non Division 4 team is Masconomet. Yes, that's right Masco. 

The Chieftains, with nearly twice the enrollment of the other five squads, are in Division Three for post season purposes but will battle for the CAL Large crown in the regular season. Not ideal, but with the demise of the CAL/NEC Super Conference, Masco couldn't find another league that would accept them (although they tried). For this year at least, this is their league.

Barring something cataclysmic, it's highly unlikely that Masco won't finish either first or second so realistically the other five teams will be battling for the second place automatic berth. If something completely out of the ordinary happens and Masco finishes third in the league, two of the other five would nail down automatic spots.

By the way, Sheehan's Vikings got off to a roaring start Saturday with an impressive 33-7 win over Swampscott in their opener.

Maximum Automatic Spots: 2

Minimum Automatic Spots: 1

Likely Automatic Spots: 1

Cape Ann League Small (4 teams)

The Pioneers, Hamilton-Wenham, Amesbury, and Ipswich make up the four Division 4 teams here. As I mentioned before, M/E and Georgetown are placed in Division 5 for purposes of post season play. While the Hornets and Royals have had championship teams in the past, they've had their troubles the last few years. M/E is 4-6 in the league the past two years and Georgetown is 0-10. The Hornets were hit hard by graduation. The Royals have some talent coming back so you never know. Either team finishing first or second takes away an automatic berth coming from this league.

Maximum Automatic Spots: 2

Minimum Automatic Spots: 0 (If M/E and Georgetown finish one, two, they would qualify for Division 5, but no one would qualify for Division 4).

Likely Automatic Spots: 2

Middlesex Freedom League (2 teams)

Stoneham and Watertown are D4 for the playoffs despite the other four teams in that league being Division 3. Both teams are 2-8 in league play over the past two years and either one knocking off Burlington, Melrose, Wakefield, or Wilmington would be tough.  

Maximum Automatic Spots: 2

Minimum Automatic Spots: 0

Likely Automatic Spots: 0

Dual County League Small (2 teams)

Bedford and Weston come into the division from the five team DCL. Bedford is always a contender and is 6-2 and finished in second place the past two years. Weston has struggled and is 0-8 the past two seasons. Wayland (Division 3) is usually the league favorite.

Maximum Automatic Spots: 2

Minimum Automatic Spots: 0

Likely Automatic Spots: 1

Northeast Conference North (1 team)

Swampscott is the only one of this five team league in Division 4. Beverly (ranked tenth in EMass in the Boston.com preseason ranking) is sure to finish either first or second. That means the Big Blue will have to beat out Gloucester, Marblehead (Both D3) and Lynn English (D2) to snag an automatic berth. They finished in second place with a 4-1 mark in the CAL/NEC last year, but were hit hard by graduation. The Big Blue loss to Triton could come back to haunt them in the wild card hunt should they fail to finish first or second.

Maximum Automatic Spots: 1

Minimum Automatic Spots: 0

Likely Automatic Spots:0

Northeast Conference South (1 Team)

Again only one team from this six team league. Winthrop is in with Peabody (D1), Lynn Classical (D2), Danvers, Revere and Salem (All D3). Despite being the smallest school in the NEC, the Vikings are always competitive. They've been 6-4 over the last two seasons in the CAL/NEC 3 and have a good shot to contend for one of the top two spots here.

Maximum Automatic Spots: 1

Minimum Automatic Spots: 0

Likely Automatic Spots:1

Catholic Central Large (1 Team)

One of the last changes the proposal committee made was shifting Arlington Catholic down from being the smallest school in D3 to the largest in D4. They finished in second place in the CCL last season rebounding from a 1-4 mark in 2011 so they look to be a contender in the six team league.

Maximum Automatic Spots: 1

Minimum Automatic Spots: 0

Likely Automatic Spots: 1

So let's total that up.

Maximum Automatic Spots: 11

Minimum Automatic Spots: 1

Likely Automatic Spots: 5

Now comes the caveat on automatic berths for second place finishers. Technically you could have 11 teams finish first or second in their leagues in the division. If that should happen, the second place finishers would be ranked by the power ratings to fill out the top 8 playoff field. More likely, based on recent history, we're looking at five automatic bids. Should Manchester-Essex or Georgetown put it together and finish in first or second in the CAL Small, that would open up another wild card slot. If Winthrop struggles with the larger teams in their league, that would add another wild card spot.  But realistically, there appears to be only two or three wild card spots ultimately available.

When it comes to the power rankings, teams like Swampscott and Winthrop would have an advantage even if they finish third in their leagues because they'll be getting 12 points for every league win. And even if the CAL Large teams lose to Masco, they are still likely to get a ton of additional points if the Chieftains run off a 7-0 season. Should one of those teams knock off Masco, they would pick up a bonanza of points.

What this means for the Pioneers is that they virtually have to come in first or second in the CAL Small to make the playoffs. Even if they win their two non league games, but finish 3-2 and in third place in the league, it's unlikely that their 5-2 mark would be enough to snag a wildcard spot based on the power ratings.

Just keep in mind that this is all pure speculation. The math guarantees only one automatic playoff berth in Division 4. SOMEONE has to finish first or second of the five teams in the CAL Large. But that's it. It's technically possible for everyone else in the division to finish lower than second in their respective leagues. That's not likely, but it's theoretically possible.

To eliminate the math problem for all of us, the Pioneers would be wise to take the advice of the late Al Davis: Just win, baby.

Now, let's play some football. Check out the Villager on Wednesday for my preseason preview of the Pioneer lineup that will be facing Newburyport in the season opener. Check back here on Thursday for my preview of the game with the Clippers.