CAL Small 2010: The Amazing Race

Now that the preliminaries are out of the way, it's time to get down to determining who will wear the CAL crown in 2010. Because of the overall parity in the league, this could prove to be one of the most exciting (or nerve wracking from the point of view of Pioneer fans) races since the league split into Large and Small Divisions in 2004.

Just a warrning before we get started. This will be a long one. Refill your cup with coffee (or your other beverage of choice) and settle in for an in-depth look at what's ahead. Call it the curse of limitless space.

In four of the six seasons that the small schools have been in their own league, the eventual champion has been undefeated in league play:

- 2004 Newburyport 5-0
- 2005 Hamilton Wenham 5-0
- 2006 Ipswich 5-0
- 2009 Lynnfield 6-0

In 2007, Newburyport and Amesbury tied in league play with 4-1 records, but the Indians took the title and advanced to the playoffs by virtue of a head to head win over the Clippers on Thanksgiving Day.

In 2008, Amesbury, Newburyport and Georgetown (who joined the Small that season) all finished with 5-1 records and it came down to the tiebreaker.

Now would be a good time to discuss the tiebreaking process since given the projected tightness of the race it could very well come into play to determine the league champion.

This is the CAL Tiebreaking process for football which was used in determining the 2008 champion:

1. Head to Head result
2. Record vs teams in the division (which is superfluous since this will match the league record)
3. Points ALLOWED (my emphasis) in games involving those teams that are tied.
4. Coin flip

So for illustration purposes, let’s review the 2008 season and how it played out using this process.

Georgetown, Newburyport and Amesbury all finished with league records of 5-1

1. Head to head:
    a. Georgetown beat Amesbury 15-14
    b. Amesbury beat Newburyport 22-7
    c. Newburyport beat Georgetown 27-26

2. Record v teams in the division: All were 5-1

3. Points Allowed in games among tied teams:
    a. Amesbury 22
    b. Georgetown 41
    c. Newburyport 48

Amesbury was awarded the title and went on to win the Division 3A Superbowl.

Going into the Thanksgiving Day game, Newburyport only needed to beat Amesbury to win the crown since they would have been undefeated at 6-0.

But Amesbury not only needed to beat Newburyport to create the three-way tie, but they needed to hold the Clippers to under 26 points. For example if Amesbury had beaten Newburyport 30-28, they would have created the three way tie, but they would have allowed 42 points against the other two teams. That would have given the crown to Georgetown who only allowed 41 points.

Got all that?

Confusing, yes but the message is clear. Other than head to head wins, “points allowed” in league games is the crucial tiebreaker.

That bodes well for the Pioneers who have displayed a nearly impenetrable defense. The first D has allowed only 12 points (all to Danvers) and continuing that trend would seem to be essential in these league games.

So what does that mean in practical terms?

Well, it may make coaches around the league think twice about pulling out the first defense, even if they are fortunate enough to get a comfortable lead. Since teams will not know if or with whom they may be tied at the end of the year, keeping points off the board is paramount. They would not want to lose a possible tiebreaker by having the second team allow what might appear to be “meaningless” points at the end of a game since in fact those points could be VERY meaningful.

This tiebreaker involves more sportsmanship than point differential, as an example, since the latter encourages running up the score, where focusing on points allowed does not.

Obviously if one team (the Pioneers?) could come out and just win six games, the conversation is moot. But given the relative strength of the league, that would appear to be formidable task. More likely is that the more than one contender will suffer a loss somewhere along the line and the tiebreaker could come into play.

So with all that said, let’s get to handicapping what looks to be an extremely exciting race.

I have personally seen five of the seven teams. The only ones I haven’t seen in person are Hamilton-Wenham and Ipswich, but I have been following them closely. What follows is the opinion of one ink-stained wretch sprinkled with some insight from other coaches around the league.

For discussion purposes, I have divided the seven teams in the league into four levels. We’ll start from the bottom and work our way up.

SPOILER ALERT

Georgetown:

Prior to last weekend, I would have said that the Royals would be the only team in the league that would be a non factor in the race. In their first four games, Georgetown suffered lopsided losses, including league defeats at the hands of the Pioneers and Amesbury.

However that all changed last Saturday when the Royals dominated Bishop Fenwick in a 25-14 victory. The Crusaders have been a Jekyll and Hyde team all year, but they did beat Hamilton Wenham handily, so they have some ability. Head coach Matt Bouchard may have gotten the Royals turned around in that win, and they could pull an upset somewhere down the line.

The Royals start with Ipswich this week then get HW and North Reading at home, then finish their league schedule against Newburyport.

North Reading:

The Hornets already have suffered losses to Ipswich and Newburyport, but they seem to be putting it all together. They are a young team, and struggled to score in their first three losses. However I saw them play Newburyport in the rain in one of those and they outplayed the Clippers in the first half before wearing down in the second in a 19-2 loss.

In game four, Head coach Jeff Wall shook things up by moving his sophomore quarterback R. J. Warnock to receiver and installing senior Nick Rosano at quarterback and that provided the spark. The Hornets built big leads against both Austin Prep and Bishop Fenwick, ultimately losing late to both, 30-26 to the Cougars and 30-24 to the Crusaders. They probably should have won both games.

They have done everything but win, and that should come shortly.

“The team that has impressed me most as the season goes on is North Reading,” said Triton assistant coach Mike Geary, a former Pioneer captain and assistant as well as a former assistant in North Reading. “They will most likely not be in the league race at that point but they could be as good as anyone by the end of the season. They did not look good when we scrimmaged them during camp, but I saw them on tape against Austin Prep and I couldn’t believe how much better they have gotten.

“North Reading moved the ball all over the field against Austin Prep and would have beaten them if it wasn’t for a few bad breaks,” Geary said.

“That’s the game that would worry me most for Lynnfield,” Geary went on. “This is North Reading’s third year running the spread and it always seems like in the middle of the third year it starts to click. That’s what happened with us in Lynnfield in our third year in the middle of 2008."
 
The Hornets will certainly have a chance to be heard in the race with games against H-W, Amesbury and Lynnfield in their final five.

ON THE DOORSTEP

Ipswich:

The Tigers have clearly turned the corner after a horrific 30 game losing streak that they finally ended last Thanksgiving Day. They sit at 3-3 overall and 1-1 in the league having beaten North Reading, CAL Large Triton and Manchester Essex. They lost a close one to Newburyport and were literally and figuratively out of their league in lopsided losses to Marblehead and Pentucket.

I actually considered putting the Tigers up into the next level, but they appear to have been bitten by the injury bug. In fact, that is probably one of the reasons for the 41-2 loss to Pentucket. They played without two of their key weapons in receiver John Eldredge, QB Brendan Gallagher’s favorite target, and running back Jake LeBlanc. Both of those are also key contributors on defense.

The Tigers didn’t seem to miss them in a 23-0 win over M/E, but if they are out for any length of time, Ipswich will be severely affected.

That said, Ipswich clearly is in control of their own fate. They always play tough and that infernal Delaware Wing T offense gives everyone, including the Pioneers, fits.

They host Georgetown this Friday and then run the gauntlet of Amesbury, Lynnfield and Hamilton Wenham to finish the year.

With one league loss already, they will pretty much have to run the table to have a shot at the title. If they get healthy, they have to be considered a contender and at the very least, they will have a say in the ultimate outcome of the race.

A HEARTBEAT AWAY

Newburyport:

The Clippers were one of the preseason favorites but took a hit with an opening day league loss to Hamilton Wenham. They followed that up with a lackluster 19-2 win against North Reading. They were clearly outplayed in the first half by the charged up Hornets but they turned things around with a big interception return at the end of the half.

The Clippers came out in the second half and decided to simply pound the Hornets with their best player, Andrew Sokol, running behind their huge offense line. They wore NR down and pulled away for the win, but were unimpressive in the effort.

But as is usually the case with a team coached by Ed Gaudiano, Newburyport has improved as the season moved on. They outlasted Ipswich 17-12 then upset Pentucket 21-18. They played Masco tough, falling 20-15 on a last quarter drive by the Chieftains.

They got hammered by undefeated Wilmington 29-0 in the storm last Friday night and they will complete their non league schedule with a game against a tough North Andover team this week and their final CAL Large game against Triton in two weeks. Those two games will be sandwiched around their biggest game of the year against the Pioneers on October 29.

The Clippers have already played three league games, and at 2-1 are in the hole with one loss, so one more defeat for them probably puts them on the outside looking in.

You could argue that the Clippers belong one level up, but the loss to H-W hurts them as does the loss of Sokol, who is out with a torn ACL, a similar injury that cost him most of last season.

As always, the Clippers will be a factor one way or another.

Hamilton-Wenham:

The Generals are another team that has engineered an impressive turnaround this season. They suffered through an injury plagued 2-8 campaign last year but the silver lining was that they were forced to play mostly younger players. The experience gained last year is now paying dividends.

H-W roared out of the gate to start the season beginning with a stunning 14-7 upset of Newburyport . They continued to roll with a solid 14-8 win over Triton and a convincing 27-14 victory over Pentucket, both CAL Large teams.

Then the Generals stubbed their collective toes on the artificial turf at Bishop Fenwick losing to what has become an enigmatic Crusader team 25-7. H-W followed that up with a 34-6 loss to Wilmington in a game that was much closer than the final score. The Generals were down only 7-0 at the half and were within one score at 14-6 in the third before the undefeated Wildcats of the CAL Large blew it open in the end game.

Based on their 2-1 mark against the CAL Large and their upset over Newburyport giving them a 1-0 record in the CAL Small, the Generals really belong one step up in this analysis. But I just can’t get over that Bishop Fenwick loss.

The Pioneers could have basically named their score against Fenwick, who also fell to Georgetown in their first win and needed a miracle fumble in the closing minutes to beat North Reading. Yet BF dominated H-W.

If it turns out that the BF loss was just a bad hair day, then H-W is for real and will battle for the title to the end. If that loss to the Crusaders somehow revealed a fatal flaw in the Generals’ armor, then they will have a rough go of it in their remaining league games against Amesbury, Lynnfield and Ipswich on Thanksgiving Day.

Either way, they will make an impact as the title race plays out.

TOP OF THE HEAP

Amesbury:

Of all the games in the Pioneers run to the championship last year, Amesbury was clearly the toughest. The Indians outplayed Lynnfield most of the day and only the Strip and Return on Main Street pulled off by Evan Panzero and Tim Lamusta allowed the Pioneers to escape with a 14-10 win.

Again this year, it looks to me like Amesbury will be the top obstacle to the Pioneers' repeating. Not that the games against Newburyport, Hamilton-Wenham, Ipswich and North Reading will be a walk in the park, but the Indians appear to be rounding into shape at just the right time.

That's why this week's showdown at Landry Stadium is so huge. The winner will go to 2-0 in the league and will have the inside track to the title. The loser will need help from someone else. (I'll have a full preview of that game on Thursday).

Why the Indians?

They appear to be the most complete team of all of the Pioneers' contenders. Quarterback Tyler Lay looks like he grew about six inches and he towers behind his solid offensive line with plenty of targets from which to choose. Watching him riddle the Pentucket defense in the first quarter was truly scary.

They also have a solid defense led by Ian McLaughlin. His importance can be seen by what happened to the Indians when he was out. McLaughlin was hurt in Amesbury's thrilling 22-21 last minute win over Triton in the their opener. He did not play in the Indians' next two games and they were blown up by North Andover 41-6 and East Boston 42-26. McLaughlin returned and the Indians fell in a hard fought game to a powerful St. Mary's team 18-7 but the defense was much improved.

Amesbury followed that up with a rout of Georgetown and a near upset of Pentucket. They are 2-4 overall, but are 1-0 in the league and that's all that counts.

The Indians also have that winning experience gained from capturing league titles in 2007 and 2008. The sophomores on that 2008 Super Bowl winning team are now seniors looking to make some history of their own. You can never underestimate that kind of experience.

Like many teams in the league, the Indians are well coached by Thom Connors and continue to improve as the season moves along. Like the Pioneers, they have five tough league games in a row to end the season, and my feeling is they are going to be there in the end.

Lynnfield:

Until someone takes it away from them, the Pioneers still wear the crown. They have cruised through their first six games winning them all while barely breaking a sweat outscoring their opponents 222-45. And it could have been much worse if head coach Neal Weidman hadn't called off the dogs in the second half in most of those games.

You can quibble with the Pioneers' schedule, playing down for three games, even for two and up for one but that kind of dominance is impressive regardless of the competition. I asked Amesbury's Connors if he felt that his team had an advantage playing a "tougher" schedule (three up, two even, one down).

"The way the leagues have shaped up it's kind of funny," Connors said. "I stopped worrying about playing up or down and just play the game that's at hand."


"You can look at it in different ways," Weidman responded to the same question. "We did play up against Danvers but (Amesbury) is more battle tested, that's for sure. I wish it had been a little more balanced this year."

Perhaps the biggest thing working against the Pioneers is the league schedule. Of the major contenders, Lynnfield has to play three of them on the road. They face Amesbury and Newburyport, a place they have never played well, on back to back Friday nights. Then after returning home against Ipswich, they head back on the bus for a trip to Hamilton-Wenham.

The league race will probably be decided on Super Thursday (Thanksgiving Day) with three huge rivalry games that could have five teams still in contention. The Pioneers host North Reading, Newburyport travels to Amesbury and Ipswich goes to Hamilton Wenham. My guess is nothing is decided until right before the turkeys are carved.


So where does that leave us as we look forward to an exciting finish to the season?

Let the experts opine.

At the beginning of the year, Weidman said any of five teams could win it and injuries could be the deciding factor. How does he feel now?

"Some of the teams that you might not have expected to be the front runners are playing pretty well right now," Weidman said. "North Reading is playing well right now. Ipswich has had their moments. They're banged up now but before that they were doing real well. Newburyport, Amesbury, Hamilton-Wenham are all right there."

Triton has played Amesbury, Hamilton-Wenham and Ipswich, so Geary has first hand knowledge of those teams.

"As far as the teams we (Triton) have seen," Geary said. "I think Lynnfield's size will give them a good advantage against the primary running offenses that Hamilton-Wenham and Ipswich feature.

"I think on paper Lynnfield is the team to beat," Geary summed up. "They're very well coached and they have the best quarterback, which goes a long way in football. However the biggest problem for Lynnfield is that the other small teams will be hunting them this year as opposed to being able to sneak up on some teams like last year."

Amesbury's Connors sums it up best.

"I don't know," Connors said. "I've seen just about everybody play. Lynnfield is as good a team as there is. They have a high powered offense and we're going to have to try and slow that down (this week). Hamilton Wenham is as tough as they've every been. They are back to being a real tough team. Newburyport has beaten Pentucket and a few other teams. I think we'll be all right. I think we have a pretty good team.

"I think it's up for grabs," Connors concluded. "I don't know what's going to happen. You can't make a mistake. This is it. We'll see."

Indeed. It all starts Friday. Strap up and let's go.