Monday, November 26, 2012

Amesbury Playoff Preview: Take Two


For the first time in the 55 year history of the LHS football program, the Pioneers will play an opponent for the second time in the same season when they face Amesbury for the right to go to Gillette Stadium on Saturday and play in the EMass Division 3A Super Bowl.

This will be the second trip to the post season for the Pioneers in four years. In 2009, the Pioneers took on the Austin Prep Cougars and came up a yard and a half short in Reading, falling 26-20 in overtime. The Pioneers will be hoping to take the next step this time.

The two foes that square off at Cawley Stadium in Lowell at 5:15 pm on Tuesday night are very familiar with each other. They have faced each other every year since Lynnfield joined the CAL in 1973. The Pioneers hold a 24-15-1 edge in the series and have won four straight, although every one required a dramatic comeback by the Pioneers to escape with the win.

For my post on the recent history of these Lynnfield/Amesbury nailbiters click here. This year's game, played in September, added another chapter to the cliffhanger-like series. Three turnovers dumped the Pioneers into an early 21-0 hole. They climbed back to 21-12 at the half, then fell behind 27-12 in the third period. But Kyle McGah's scored three second half TD's to lift the Pioneers to a dramatic 31-27 win.

Similar Paths
The Pioneers and Indians followed similar arcs after that game. They both played their worst game of the year the following week to drop to 1-2 on the season. The Pioneers played their poorest game of the season in a 14-7 loss to Bishop Fenwich while Amesbury was dominated by North Reading 21-7.

That was the low point of the season for both squads. Neither has lost since.

The Pioneers rattled off seven straight wins including a perfect 5-0 league mark, outscoring their opponents 190-46 in that stretch. The Indians won eight straight including a spotless 5-0 CAL/NEC 3 record of their own, outscoring those foes 235-119.

The Pioneers have done it with a smothering defense that has held opponents to and average of 6.5 points per game during the win streak. The Indians unleashed an overpowering offense during their last eight wins, averaging 29.3 points per game.

Not to be redundant, but as in the North Reading game, something's got to give.

"They're hot, there's no doubt about that," said Pioneer head coach Neal Weidman. "They've been playing great. Ever since we've played them they've been fantastic. They have a long winning streak going and they've been scoring a ton of points. We're happy to be there to play them."

Amesbury earned its ticket to the playoffs with a hard fought 13-10 win over Newburyport on the foot of Mac Short who nailed two field goals. The Indian defense shut down Newburyport, while producing enough offense to win.

Something Looks Familiar
In trying to think of the best way to describe the Indians, I keep coming up with the 2011 Hamilton Wenham Generals. They have Matt Talbot at quarterback who like the Generals' Trevor Lyons is dangerous both as a runner and a passer. He has rushed for 10 touchdowns and is Amesbury's leading scorer with 66 points. Talbot has also thrown for 15 scores which ties him for second in Division 3A.In the earlier meeting with the Pioneers, Talbot ran for 124 yards and a score and was 10 of 20 for 168 yards and a TD.

Continuing the H-W analogy, playing the part of last year's bruising General running back Elliot Burr is  rough and tumble Perry Mroz. Mroz has scored eight touchdowns and is second in scoring for the Indians with 50 points.

And where the Generals had a flock of good receivers in Matt Putur, Pete Duval and Luke Wendt, this year's Indian squad has Thom Connors (5 TD catches), Devlin Gobeil (3 TD's), Pat Scanlon (3 TD's) and Shawn Bannon (3 TD's).

The only real difference between 2011 H-W and 2012 Amesbury is that the Generals ran from the spread and pro set while the Indians line up in a modified Wing T. But the personnel is eerily similar and equally dangerous.

Comparing the Teams
When trying to compare Lynnfield and Amesbury, one measuring stick are the results against seven common opponents. Both teams played H-W, North Reading, Ipswich, Manchester Essex, Georgetown, Pentucket and Newburyport.

Amesbury went 6-1 against those teams outscoring them 184-108. Their only loss was to North Reading. The Indians allowed double digit points to all of them except M/E who they held to 7 points.

The Pioneers also went 6-1 against that group, outscoring them 175-47. Their only loss was the one point defeat to Newburyport. The Pioneers shut out Georgetown while holding four others to one score. Only Hamilton Wenham (14) and M/E (13) scored more than once against Lynnfield.

Fittingly, the only team to score more than twice against the Pioneers was Amesbury, whose 27 points is the most anyone has scored against them this season and represents almost 30% of the points scored on the Pioneer defense all year.

The Pioneers' 31 points against Amesbury is also the most the Indians have allowed all year.

Effective Spread
Most big games come down to defense, but it's hard to see either team shutting down the other with the weapons they both employ. Amesbury was able to shut down Newburyport, but there was an interesting subplot in that game.


The Clippers ran two thirds of their plays against Amesbury out of a pro set offense with Connor Wile under center. They averaged about 4 yards per carry rushing out of that formation. They ran about a third of their plays out of the Pioneer-like spread with Colton Fontaine taking the snaps and averaged almost 7 yards per carry against Amesbury out of that set. The Indians seemed to have more trouble with the pull and go play that is a staple of the Lynnfield offense operated by captain quarterback Mike Karavetsos and McGah.

In the first game, the Indians clearly keyed on Karavetsos, limiting him to 52 yards, but McGah ran wild for 148 yards and four touchdowns.

The game will come down to which defense can slow down the other's offense. The Indians have scored 317 points on the year while the Pioneers have scored 234. That's a lot of offense to try and contain.

The other key factor is that both teams have outstanding coaches in Weidman for the Pioneers and Thom Connors for Amesbury. Those two will be playing chess on the sidelines while the boys are battling it out on the field.

"When it comes to this time of the year, you are going to be playing a good team," said Weidman. "It comes down to who plays well and who gets the breaks."

Final Word
So where does that leave us.

Click here for a preview from the Newburyport News and here for a preview from the Boston Herald.

For my final word on the subject, I called on a couple of objective third parties in North Reading offensive coordinator Ed Melanson (an appreciated and valuable contributor to the blog all season) and Triton head coach Pat Sheehan (as objective as a former Pioneer captain and offensive coordinator could be).

"This game is very interesting," said Sheehan, whose young Viking squad fell to the Indians 42-13 in October. "I think Amesbury has the edge in skill while Lynnfield is definitely stronger up front. Both teams are considerably better than they were when they played early in the year so that game should have no bearing except for the fact that it is extremely difficult to beat a good football team once. Lynnfield now has to beat them twice. Hamilton-Wenham did it to Newburyport last year though.

"Amesbury is very difficult to defend, (more so than any team we faced this year)," Sheehan went on. "They run so many different plays and do it all well. They throw the ball vertically, in the underneath zones and screen well. They run the ball very well and have many different weapons. Gobeil may be the best receiver in the league and Talbot is getting my vote for Tier 3 Player of the year. I think that the tough Thanksgiving matchups for both teams was good for the game as well, as neither team's last game was an easy one and they had to work for them."

"We played Amesbury very early in the season, as did Lynnfield," Melanson said. "Amesbury has some really nice weapons, #7 Talbot at quarterback is very quick and throws well, #31 Mroz is a big fullback and middle linebacker, #12 Gobeil is an excellent receiver along with the coaches son #2 Connors who is a back/receiver. They have a big line and really spread the field very well."

"They have been on a roll for a while and even when things are tough they manage to pull out the win," Melanson went on. "Like Lynnfield they are senior loaded. I believe where they are suspect is on the other side of the ball where they have given up close to twice the number of points that Lynnfield has. I'm by no means saying they are a bad defensive team, I just wouldn't put them on par with Lynnfield.

"I think at the point of the season Amesbury and Lynnfield played the Pioneers were still figuring things out and after the Bishop Fenwick game really settled down, focused and have gotten better each week," he went on. "I think it should be another great game but I think Lynnfield is a better team. May not be as flashy but it's playoff time and defense is what wins, not flash. I would put Lynnfield and Newburyport's defenses on the same level but Lynnfield has a better offense right now and should be able to throw up a few touchdowns and keep Amesbury in check."

The forecast as of 4:45 pm Monday calls for light snow showers mid day Tuesday ending by around game time. Hopefully that is the case. You hate to have a game of this magnitude affected by the weather, but both teams have to play in it regardless.

All that's left is to play the game.

That's it for now. Check back after the game for some of my initial thoughts on the game.

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